PALMYRA — Fluco Blog has received a leaked version of the entire return on investment spreadsheet, including assumptions used.
Joe Chesser previously released a portable document format (PDF) of just the results tab of the latest Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission ROI. Fluco Blog has received the entire spreadsheet from multiple sources close to the process.
While the results version Chesser released gives the final picture, the assumptions for the results has been questioned. Multiple sources close to the internal county dialog have confirmed county staff have questioned assumptions and/or the Excel formulas used.
Those same sources are saying the hold up in releasing the document has centered around those questions. Reportedly, TJPDC has reconfirmed the information and formulas without any major corrections.
Major assumptions for the ‘expected growth’ model of the Department of Corrections only plan, 75,000 gallons of water per day plus 125,000 gallons of sewer, include an average growth of housing units of seven a year for the first five years. Residential growth then slows to three a year from the sixth through the 20th year.
The commercial growth includes an average of 19,000 new square feet per year for the first five years. For the next 15 years, the average growth is 11,000 square feet per year for commercial. The forecast also averages 2,000 square feet a year of restaurant space for the first five years and zero additional square feet for years six through 20.
The Aqua deal of 500,000 gallons of water a day plus 125,000 of sewer a day uses assumptions for the ‘expected growth’ scenario of adding an average of 10 homes a year for the first 15 years then an average of eight a year for the final five years of the 20 year forecast.
Commercially it includes adding an average of 41,000 square feet of retail space for the first 15 years then averaging 32,250 square feet a year for the final five years. Restaurant footage added is projected at 1,000 square feet average a year for 15 years and zero square footage for years 16 through 20.
Each proposal has water rates of $8 per 1,000 gallons of water use and $10 per 1,000 gallons of sewer use. Both proposals use the same connection fees as well.
The expected growth model for the DOC proposal uses the water capacity nearly by year seven and is 12,000 gallons short by year eight. The same model for the Aqua proposal uses 153,113 in the final year, thus leaving 346,887 gallons extra capacity even in the last year.
The DOC plan, by limiting available water also limits development, will not exceed the 125,000 gallons of sewer capacity the entire 20 years. The Aqua plan would need additional sewer space by at least the 15th year.
The document is locked via password, unbeknownst to Fluco Blog.
Originally the public hearing for the Aqua proposal was scheduled for Aug. 7 but was not properly advertised. It has been postponed to another meeting. The regularly scheduled 2 p.m. Board of Supervisors meeting will still occur, at Fluvanna County High School’s auditorium.